Summary: NASA has raised the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%. A viral simulation showcases the catastrophic impact of the city-killer asteroid. Experts weigh in on the potential threat.
NASA has officially increased the probability of a “city-killer” asteroid, 2024 YR4, colliding with Earth in 2032 to 3.1% (1 in 32 odds). This marks a concerning rise from the previous estimate of 2.6%, leading to growing public interest in the asteroid’s trajectory.
First detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of 177 feet (54 meters)—comparable in size to a medium-sized building. While it is not large enough to cause global extinction, experts warn that it could obliterate an entire city upon impact.
Chilling Simulation Shows Potential Catastrophe
A computer-generated simulation of the asteroid’s impact is now going viral, illustrating the devastation it could unleash if it collides with Earth. Created by 3D animation expert Alvaro Gracia Montoya, the simulation showcases the massive explosion and destruction that would follow a direct hit on an urban area.
An X (formerly Twitter) user shared the simulation, stating:
“NASA has increased the chance a major asteroid smashes into Earth in 2032, now giving it a 3.1% chance, up from 2.6% last week. NASA says the odds of impact are 1 in 32. It is big enough to wipe out an entire city.”
Should We Be Worried? Experts Weigh In
Despite the rising probability, scientists urge the public to remain calm, noting that the risk is still comparatively low.
Bruce Betts, Chief Scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society, reassured the public in a statement to AFP:
“I’m not panicking. Naturally, when you see the percentages go up, it doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy, but the probability will likely rise before rapidly dropping to zero as we gather more data.”
NASA’s current trajectory analysis estimates the potential impact date as December 22, 2032. However, astronomers expect that further observations will refine the asteroid’s path, likely eliminating any chance of a collision.
How Real Is the Threat?
NASA and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) have been closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4 since its discovery. The IAWN issued a formal warning memo in January 2025 when the asteroid’s impact probability first crossed 1%.
Currently, the latest NASA data suggests:
- 3.1% chance (1 in 32) of Earth impact
- 96.9% probability the asteroid will miss Earth entirely
- 0.3% chance it could collide with the Moon instead
NASA continues to analyze the asteroid’s trajectory, and experts believe that as more data is collected, the risk level will likely drop to 0%.
Planetary Defense Measures in Place
Should the unlikely scenario of an impact become imminent, NASA and other space agencies are already preparing defensive measures. Initiatives like the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission have proven that human intervention can alter an asteroid’s course, reducing or eliminating threats.
A Watchful Eye on 2024 YR4
While a 3.1% chance of impact is significant, it remains far from a certainty. Scientists emphasize that more data will refine predictions, with odds likely dropping in the near future.
For now, space agencies worldwide continue to monitor the asteroid closely, ensuring that if action is required, humanity will be prepared to respond.